Below is an article I wrote for Celtic Underground (Adapt or Die) and I wanted to follow it up with a recruitment strategy idea which is by no mean a finished article, more just me playing around with some ideas based upon things I’ve learned on my journey. Hopefully you will find it interesting and please let me know what you think.
As someone who is still very much learning I still lean on lots of words of others who have far more experience than me and the main man in my opinion is Monchi (Aston Villa, ex-Sevilla Head of Recruitment / Head of Football Operations) and he always spoke about his 70/30 theory during his time at Sevilla where 70% of what you look at is what a players can potentially offer you in the future and 30% is about the here and now (experience). The idea being is if you are ensuring you are good enough today, that 70% who have potential get time to learn from the established players, the coaches and manager, and they grow both as players and as people.
Ramón Rodríguez Verdejo aka Monchi
Given that our dynamic as a club is quite unique in regards to the pressure to win domestically I would adapt the Monchi theory based on a squad of 25 players to 60/40 in favour of Talent and Experience until such time as we have become regularly competitive in Europe and started producing better players of our own. Then gradually transition that over a period of time towards a 60/40 with Potential taking over as the majority. Producing players in the Academy, and also buying the best Potential is a process that will take time because our Academy isn’t currently working well, and our recruitment in the Potential bracket hasn’t been as good as it should be… and that doesn’t just change overnight.
Currently based on players who have been active in the first team our squad is around 72% Talent / Experience and 28% Potential. Obviously these numbers are fluid as each year we all get older and so players will move from Potential to Talent to Experience if they stay with us.
The obvious factor in all of this is these are just numbers and ultimately it’s about having the right qualities in the make up of your team to execute on the pitch. Knowing what qualities are best suited to the playstyles adopted by the manager and by the club, and that’s where we need a good mix of the data elements and the human elements are required to establish what makes up our player profiles.
Now being a Celtic supporter I’ve applied this framework below to them, but like any recruitment strategy you can easily apply it to any club and upgrade it or downsize it to fit your needs. The core principles would remain the same and the key elements are good people and communication from top to bottom, and bottom to top as there can be a fear of speaking to the senior figures and that needs to be removed from any environment where you have shared goals. It’s all about knowing what your club is today, and what it aims to be in the future and how we can make that happen.
THE ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Adapt or die – The Celtic Underground Substack
The title is extreme, we won’t die… we aren’t like our neighbours, but in European football terms if we don’t start finding ways to complete within the next year or so then many of these games will fast become like funerals.
After yet another European rodgering, Brendan Rodgers openly said this tactical setup is his way and he’s sticking to it, so we move on to an away game in Bergamo to play Atalanta this week after a tough 2-2 draw vs a resurgent Aberdeen side who look to be our main challengers domestically. Meanwhile Atalanta, Europa League winners, and the only team to have cut down the juggernaut that is Leverkusen last season come into the game on good recent form, beating Shakhtar 3-0 in Germany, then a 5-1 slaying of Genoa and 2-0 win away to “fashion gurus” Venezia.
I’ve got my pillow to hide behind ready, not just because of the Dortmund game but because Atalanta are a team who will trouble any team in the tournament if they can go up the gears, especially with Mateo Retegui, Ademola Lookman, Charles De Ketelaere at the top with the strength sat behind them in Mario Pasalic and Ederson who will look to take the ball in and then move it wide looking for overloads with Raoul Bellanova and Davide Zappacosta getting high up the pitch to link with Lookman and De Ketelaere as much as possible. We have ways to give Atalanta a game, but as much as I understand and appreciate the ideas that we try to play out on the pitch I still feel we lack some key elements to be able to take those plans toe to toe with the better teams. Personally, I’d like to see the 4411 defensive setup we used in the game vs Rangers earlier in the season and getting players into the faces of Ederson and Pasalic as quickly as possible once they look to enter our half. Then when we have good, safe control we can get Maeda and Kuhn up the pitch and move into a 4231 and get Hatate as close to Kyogo as possible.
So, what will it take to make Rodgers way work long term and the quick and easy answer for most is better players and so I want to consider the routes we can take to bring in more quality by looking at 2 examples most would be familiar with….
Red Bull Salzburg are a team to be admired for innovation and their transfer model. They have plenty of players who would be classed as having extremely high potential, some would be on the A+ category for potential but they look like us right now in Europe, maybe even a little worse. They are a team who lack a real quality of leadership in the moments that you only really get from experience and with only 2 players over 26 in their first team squad, both of whom are goalies and for me they are a good example of problems you can end up with in terms of a lack of consistency which resulted in a 2nd place finish last season and a mixed start to the Austrian Bundesliga this season.
Brighton, another team regularly name checked as one of the best recruitment models in town and rightly so in my opinion. Whilst they go to great lengths and into phenomenal detail to sign exciting young prospects in guys like Bart Verbruggen, Matt O’Riley, Yankuba Minteh and Jack Hinshelwood. They are quick to balance it with guys in their mid-twenties like Mats Wieffer, Ferdi Kardioglu and Kauro Mitouma and bring in the senior guys like James Milner, Danny Welbeck, Jason Steele and Joel Veltman.
One of the best things about the senior group at Brighton is they all have great reputations as leaders and are willing to act as on field coaches for these brilliant young talents they’ve pulled together. Milner, Welbeck and Veltman have all played in Europe for good clubs, all won things and then they have stalwarts like Webster and Dunk who are so intwined as a partnership over the last 5 years that they probably know each other better than their wives know them, and Solly March who has come through the Brighton system. These older guys are your experience and core group that you can trust to step up to lead when things are going right and when they’re going wrong and in-turn they bring the younger group with them through the good times and the bad. That for me is an area that we lack with Callum McGregor and Kasper Schmeichel the only 2 who start most games and then James Forrest who is in and around the first team.
The cries of we can’t get those players, well of course we can’t get those ones, but there are plenty of guys 27, 28, 29, 30+ who in my opinion are maybe a small step down from a Milner or Veltman who we should be having conversations around with a view to selling them on the idea of a good contract, a great chance to win a few trophies and to help us develop guys like Arne Engels, Adam Idah and Paolo Bernardo, maybe even step into coaching with the SFA being recognised as one of the best places to do your UEFA licenses with and they’re right on our doorstep (probably one of the only things they’re useful for).
The irony is we have proven it can work for us with Joe Hart and Kasper Schmeichel, but to me we seem reluctant to look and at it for player profiles in other positions and that for me is something I’d like to see change.
January is 70 days away at the time of writing, some big calls to be made going into the transfer window both in, and probably more so on the out column of the transfer planner. Holm especially looks like he needs a new home to get much needed games before he becomes mistaken for a water boy. Palma, Nawrocki and Welsh have situations that need to be considered, and a few of the younger lads who seem to have been kept because of Youth Champions League will also be looking for game time at a decent level because Lowland League isn’t going to take Colby Donovan, Mitchell Frame or anyone else to the levels that will adequately prepare them for the 1st team. While there is a bit of hype around Daniel Cummings as a striker. For me has a lot to do, especially in terms of his fitness and mentality from what I’ve seen and heard.
There comes a point where we have to recognise as a club that there is value to be had in signing guys over 27, and even guys who are over 28/29 who have seen it and done it to come in and help balance out the “trading model” that the club want to use to build the team with. So instead of looking for a needle in a haystack trying to find the next Wanyama who is under 22, could we add a layer to our model that says if we can find a guy who is 26+, even 30+ who can do what we need for a few years at European / Champions League level then we look at the situation and discuss the merits that it can bring. That doesn’t always mean having to spend millions on a fee, but may require a significant outlay in terms of a wage and signing on fee to get a player in who is free or who a club is looking to get off the wage bill. Would we have pushed the boat out to bring in a Ricardo Rodriguez who moved to Real Betis for free, or a Yerry Mina who joined Cagliari for free…. and the answer based on recent evidence appears to be no.
Below is a sheet covering all our permanent signings since the first 21/22 transfer window when Ange Postecoglou took over up until and including this summer under Brendan Rodgers.
Observations
- Better identification and recruitment required at the younger end of the scale, especially in the 18 to 20 age brackets (also better youth development)
- Our players signed between 24 to 26 have made the most significant impacts so while it’s unlikely we will sell them for 20mil + they have brought great value in delivering success
- Huge gap from 27+ with 4 players signed (3 Goalkeepers and 1 midfielder) which for me needs to be addressed as the team lacks high level experience, which is especially clear in the Champions League
Paul Tisdale aka Doctor Football has just been formally announced in his new role as Head of Football Operations. It appears he’s been around the club for a few months so his name hasn’t come as a shock, his job title to me was unexpected as the suggestions were that he would be Head of Recruitment so it’ll be interesting to see what his reach is within the club. I was hoping to see him at Barrowfield with the under 18s on Friday alongside O’Dea and others but no sign of him on the day.
The YouTube interview (with Business of Sport) he done prior to being announced was an interesting insight to his methods and beliefs. I’ll be delighted to see anyone who comes into the club who looks through it with a clean view and be allowed to push for improvement but I’m not holding my breath waiting for significant change in some key areas, but would be the first to applaud anyone who shows willingness and strength to make it happen.
The club has the jobs for the Bhoys title hanging over it, is Paul one of those…. I don’t know, maybe I’ll get lucky enough to meet him up at Lennoxtown or Barrowfield one day and learn enough to give an informed opinion.
I hope like most that Paul Tisdale has been added because of what he knows and what he can bring to the club, ideally with a remit to analyse things without any interference, and that upon a full and proper review we will engage in pro-active discussions around any suggestions he may make, and that we won’t stay the same just because it’s easier than change. I expect his prescription sheet to have some good stuff written on it because for all our successes there is a lot that could be so much better.
He said it himself in his interview to have any chance of success we continually need to adapt and move forward. Those outside want that and many feel it’s time for a few people inside Celtic to get on that bus.
He also said he thought scouts were a waste of time at Exeter which in a small pool of options may well have been true for Exeter City. However, I hope that’s not the case with us because we have a few excellent scouts and people in our recruitment department who for me just need the freedom to do their jobs in the best way they can, for some that means video work, others like to get out and about… so let people work to their strengths and then decide what routes look best for us. The key thing is always communication, get that right then chances of finding the right players will always be a bit easier.
And for fun I’ve built a little file on what I’d want or expect or recruitment setup to look like that will follow shortly…
Here’s hoping for a good result in Bergamo… C’mon the Hoops
THE RECRUITMNT STRATEGY FILE
Link to the presentation below: https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1bJ7lywh61lY7aQLHBpw11GYDIYO5rZONct-EXihC1QU/edit?usp=sharing
The Magnificent 7 Recruitment Strategy
I hope you enjoyed this and if you did please feel free to drop a like on Twitter or wherever you found this and please feel free to comment on anything you like or that you feel I may have missed.
RH