I never thought I’d use this site to write about Hibernian FC if truth be told. A team that I have a little history with because I have one half of my family who supports them, and the other half support Hearts. Thankfully neither team was put upon me as a youngster, not sure I could handle the misery.
Hibs and Hearts for me in recent years are the great pretenders, both have had fleeting moments over the last 10 years with cup wins but neither can honestly lay claim to being the 3rd best team in Scotland, especially when St.Johnstone have won more trophies than the 2 combined in the last 10 years with 3 major trophies to the combined 2 between the Edinburgh sides.
Hibs winning the Scottish Cup in the 2015/2016 season should have been the catalyst for something, having untied that anchor from round their necks, but since then 8 managers, with many of them doing well to get a year and the longest serving was Neil Lennon (2016 to Jan 2019). Currently sat bottom of the league and looking every bit a side that is primed for yet another spell in the Championship unless they sort themselves out fast.
League positions
2015–16 (Premiership): 4th
2016–17: 6th
2017–18: 4th
2018–19: 7th
2019–20: 5th
*2020–21: 3rd*
2021–22: 5th
2022–23: 4th
2023-24: 7th
- Jack Ross in 20/21 has produced the best league position since Hibs returned to the Premiership with a 3rd place finish.
So, what has gone wrong?
The list is pretty long and the fundamental elements are easy to see. Awful recruitment of managers and players that has got them here to this very day with a manager in his first job as a permanent manager and 18 players in their first team squad who could play their last game for Hibs on the final day of the season. A few are there on loan but the majority are out of contract and right now if you asked a Hibs fan who they’d want to keep I think the list would be short enough to be able to write on the back of a stamp.
The other part is the age-old fan argument. How many Hibs players would get in another team in the Premiership, not just the Hearts team but in any Premiership team…. You might fit the names on the postage stamp alongside the players that Hibs fans would want to keep this summer.
Contracts / Loans due to end in 2025
Martin Boyle, Junior Hoilett, Jordan Obita, Joe Newell(capt), Dwight Gayle, Chris Cadden, Harry McKirdy, Jake Doyle-Hayes, Josh Campbell, Josef Bursik, Rocky Bushiri, Max Boruc, Hyeok-Kyu Kwon, Nohan Kenneh, Lewis Miller, Mykola Kukharevych, Nectarios Triantis and Luke Amos
So many names, and the only time you hear those names in and around the green side of Edinburgh are at the start of a sentence that ends in “…….is a useless David Cootes”
Now as an outsider looking in, I don’t think they are all poor players, but when you look at the Hibs squad it looks like mashed potato, bland, boring and lots of the same types of players and when you look at recruitment and player sales over the past few years it’s all just really messy. Loads of free transfers and minimal fees to sign players who have made no real impact. Then un the out column there are a few players of quality and the often a lot of players who were signed done nothing and then moved in within 2 years of arrival.
Notable Moves
In:
Melkerson – 300k (21/22)
Youan – 500k (23/24)
Levitt – 300k (23/24)
Vente – 700k (23/24)
Bowie – 600k (24/25)
Out:
Boyle – 3mil (21/22)
Doig – 3mil+ add-ons (22/23)
Porteous – 500k (22/23)
Nisbet – 2mil (23/24)
Melkerson 1.2mil (23/24)
Last but not least I want to mention the sale of Dylan Tait to Falkirk which was finalised this season having loaned him out midway through 23/24. A player who has been outstanding under John McGlynn, and a player who right now would stroll into the Hibs team.
The only real positive in who has arrived and then been sold in recent times is Melkerson (below) who they made a 900k profit on despite him doing absolutely nothing of note in a Hibs shirt. He quickly left on loan, and then moved back to Norway.
Now I’m looking at the lists above of In and Out and then I’m looking at who is in the Hibs team now and all I’m seeing is a huge dip in quality and when the quality dips then so do performances and ultimately results.
There is little to excite in that team and the most telling part is the one player who most Hibs fans I speak to seem to think has got near pass marks this season is the veteran Junior Hoilett, I’m not sure I’d agree but then I don’t watch them every week. The 34-year-old who has 1 goal and 0 assists in the league…. that’s the pass mark right now. 1 goal / 0 assists and in a team that are bottom of the league. Not much to say about that is there…
David Grays Current Overall Record 24/25
3 of those wins and 15 of the goals were in the League Cup group stage where they played Queens Park (W), Kelty Hearts (L), Elgin City (W) and Peterhead (W) before being knocked out 3-1 by Celtic.
The last 24 hours have seen the Hibs board back Gray (kiss of death) and say all departments need to do better, but you could argue the department that is in the worst shape is the one releasing statements because they’ve watched this happen, sacked countless managers, signed the final paperwork that has seen good players leave and poor replacements come through the door. It’s a constant rinse and repeat mechanism that Ron Gordon and Malcolm MacPherson (below) have kept in place over the past few years.
Gray obviously has to carry the weight of what he sets out on the pitch. I watched the recent derby game vs Hearts and actually thought he initially set his stall out pretty well to give Hibs a chance at a result, which required them to sit in a little, play on the break and to try and utilise set plays. A tactic Hearts have used vs Hibs many a times, allow them the ball in areas where you are happy to defend against and then look for chances to pinch the ball and then counter.
The main issue was that as the game went on the substitutions made by both teams told 2 different stories. Hibs removed the “luxury” players Elie Youan (Stuart Lovells fav) and Hoilett and tried to clutter the middle, while Hearts went for attackers, width and pace and as soon as they equalised there was only one team who looked likely to win. For me Hibs and Gray got lucky to get the point in the end. Yet you look back through that game and see Hibs had missed some clear-cut chances. Triantis and Gayle both guilty of missing sitters, but they’d been and gone. At 1-0 up sometimes you just need to be able to shut a game down and take the 3 points. Everyman and his dog knew Hibs were never going to keep the clean sheet, and Grays changes done nothing to help that. Did Gray look at his bench having made 3 of his 5 subs and think there is no one here I fancy to get us up the pitch, or to help us keep the clean sheet… Maybe the part of him being a manager cutting his teeth in what is a big job as your first job is going to be a step to high at this stage, especially in such a messy scenario.
The appointment of Malky Mackay (below) in May to try and help the situation for me was also ill-advised, but the problem you have with Malky isn’t that he isn’t capable. It’s that when any club is on a downward trajectory you don’t put a divisive character into the mix and unfortunately Malkys past will always follow him, that’s the nature of the world we live in now.
In that scenario for me you find the best, most positive person you can get that you know the support will back or at the very least look at with some optimism, even if that means it’s a figurehead with someone acting as a puppeteer under them to put plans together and direct the show. The whole idea is to build a momentum around the club ethos, not to throw grenades into an already damaged environment. You also look at the style Mackay adopted as a manager and have to ask if his ethos matches with that of Hibs. Based on what I’ve seen of his teams I’m struggling to see the connection, and so like many parts of the puzzle that is Hibs you have bits that have come from another game entirely that just do not fit. I’ll be honest and say when I look around, I’ve no idea who the best Sporting Director is for Hibs, or who the candidates were at the time but unless they were down to a 3 of John Robertson, Rudi Skacel and Malky then it’s really hard to understand the logic.
Hibs in my lifetime have been a team who for the most part have tried to play football in an entertaining manner and pragmatism is never accepted for very long by the support. This team has no real creativity on show and certainly no goal scorers. Boyle and Kukarevych – 2 each are the current top scorers for them in the league. 11 goals in 10 games leaves them 11th in goals scored so far. Bowie signed in the summer would have been the most likely option to try and fill that role but injury has ruled him out for a while. Youan is a player who has previously shown flashes of a good player with his ability to drive with the ball, now he looks a shadow of what he can be and low on confidence.
I go back to those 18 players who could be out at the end of the season and try to work out how you navigate this season if you are David Gray and the answers are not easy to come by because offering players new deals looks like a reward for failure, not offering them new deals seems to be resulting in many of them downing tools and it’s an odd situation given very few of them are at the end of their careers so will be looking for another club next season. Generally, you find a few players start playing above themselves going into the latter stages of a contract for that very reason but the malaise is well and truly set in by the looks of recent performances.
Who amongst them do you look at and believe in enough to A. keep you in the league and B. be part of what you want going forward. It’s a question that would have David Gray losing hair if he had any left to lose.
I genuinely cannot fathom how the board and the Hibs recruitment team have let this happen. It’s like they’ve just ignored contract expiry dates and done absolutely no forward planning at all. Most teams want to have a 2-year plan as a base and it looks like Hibs had a 2-year plan, 2 years ago and haven’t looked at it since. They might want to look at the recruitment plan in my previous article for some help. The only clubs you would find who have to deal with this kind of mass expiration of player contracts would be at lower league levels where 1- and 2-year contracts are the norm.
The Black Knight group (Bill Foley – Chairman of AFC Bournemouth below) have invested in Hibs, buying 25% of the club for around 6 million pounds but thus far the only thing to note is that they have openly said they feel the Hibs board do not want to listen to any advice from them. Now Foley has seen teams he’s invested in struggle. Lorient were in Ligue 1 and “were not listening” when he invested and are now in Ligue 2. The reaction to that didn’t seem to be one of major concern from Foley, if anything it could be argued that if he goes in and the existing structure goes through a period of turbulence and gets relegated then it can pay off longer term for Foley, as Lorient are now listening. Ironically, he can become the great white (Black) knight who tells the support he and his group are the ones who can save the day. Lorient are currently 2nd in Ligue 2.
I don’t buy into the notion that relegation is a good thing for a club, especially Hibs. I’m sure if Hibs were to be relegated they’d likely be back up a season later, but you can never say it and be 100% certain because with 18 players out of contract you have to trust that if the majority go that the club replace them with players who are better, right now I doubt Hibs fans trust the recruitment setup to do that, especially to get a team who could win the Championship, and then be trusted to hold their own in the Premiership.
Possible Solutions
Personally, I’d go against the norm of planning for the worst with these 18 players likely to leave, that ship has sailed. I’d look to see it as a positive, a chance to rinse what I could get out of them and then a chance for a recruitment team and manager to spend the next 4 months working non-stop to build a set of player dossiers in time for the summer window. Where possible I’d try to get the ones who I had no time for out in January and focussing all my energy on players who were liable to be at the club like Motonikov and any other Academy player who is showing good form.
I’d then look to make a move similar to the one Aberdeen have and look at Morten Jensen (below – right) and Bjarte Lunde Aarsheim (below – left) at Viking in Norway. A team who has a budget that is around half of what Molde and Bodo work with but who have been at the top end of the table for 3 of the 4 seasons under this managerial duo.
Here is a link to a great tactical breakdown of what they try to do with Viking:
Viking FK: The key tactical points that see them top of the Eliteserien
Then I would very quickly be working out what the player profiles required for them would be and in the meantime taking advantage of their knowledge of the Scandic player markets as seasons will be coming to an end in Norway, Sweden, Finland and other Scandic nations to bring in a few players who can add some stability and quality with an aim to be strong from Jan to May. Top 6 isn’t impossible but short term the first job would be to get out of the relegation spots.
Players to consider
Filip Ottoson @ Sandefjord / 28 years old / Central midfielder
The 28-year-old Swede would be a player who would likely fit in terms of budget and step into a Hibs midfield that really lacks a final pass or ability to deliver from a set play.
6th in the Eliteserien for xA per 90mins and a great work ethic to cover the midfield area from the 1st whistle to the last.
He in the right setup would bring a level of quality on the ball and a consistency that could be placed alongside someone like Triantis who is willing and capable of being the more defensively minded player.
Gianni Stensness @ Viking FK / 25 years old / Central Defender
The Aussie is now in his 4th season at Viking and is a key fixture on the right side of the Viking back 4 who has one of the highest defensive dual success rates in the league and is one of the most consistent and progressive passers of the ball which again is something Hibs lack at the back with a common theme this season being poor passing from those in the back line into the midfield or front line.
Mads Borchers @ VPS / 22 Years Old / Striker
10 goals (5 pens) and 2 assists in 16 games in the Finnish Veikkausliiga has seen this young man be looked at by a few teams in the Scandic nations and a few others in Western Europe. Borchers overall game allows VPS to attack using him in a variety of roles as he is capable of playing as a pure 9 or drifting off to the left side to place himself vs fullbacks. He has the highest rate for a striker receiving long passes in the Finnish league which demonstrates his ability to hold up the ball and his goal tally is a result of him hitting the target with a high rate of accuracy, just over 52% of all his shots hitting the target and a conversion rate of 23%. He also has plenty of potential and if used correctly with the right pieces around him he is a player who could become a valuable asset on the pitch and also as a starting point to rebuild squad value when it comes to having
His ability to score goals and also to allow his team to get up the pitch and play off of him may bring out more from the likes of Boyle, Hoilett and Youan.
The 3 players above are just examples of options that could be available and when you are looking to bring the levels up in any struggling team the key positions are down the spine. Then you build around it. I’d also be going straight to Bill Foley and asking for Will Dennis (below) on loan from Bournemouth. A keeper who done well enough in his loan spell with Kilmarnock last season and who would be a safer set of gloves than the 3 goalkeepers at Hibs currently.
Conclusion
Overall, this is a Hibs side that needs major surgery and a new sense of direction that their support can get on board with to allow them to become a team that is competitive on a regular basis, not just a team who have 1 good year in every 4.
In some ways they are lucky that this demonstration of horrendous planning means that a lot of the parts they don’t want will be leaving in the summer and it’s not a case of having to try and find buyers, more just shut the door and change the locks once they’re out. That poor recruitment and planning also has its downsides as well, as there is no real sign of any transfer money coming in so they need to set a budget and really spend wisely to build up a squad of players that can become assets. The starting point has to be doing everything they can to get a squad together that can win enough games to ensure this season ends with them in the Premiership next season, and that will mean having to get the wallet out and use any contacts they have to better themselves on the pitch in the next window, whether that’s Gray or someone else but that decision really needs to be made sooner rather than later. If they’re thinking Gray has until the end of November, then it’s just more decisions made from dart boards in my opinion. He was a legend to the Hibs faithful as a player but when you come back from 2-0 to draw and the fans are still wanting your head then that’s usually a fair sign that you’ve lost them entirely.
All change needs to start at the top. The board need to choose a direction and stick with it, not just keep rolling the dice or throwing darts at a chart full of random ideas. If Hibs were my team, I’d want a manager who has a bit of experience, is willing to play on the front foot and has a good knowledge of markets that a team like Hibs has a realistic chance of being able to take advantage of. Most important of all a willingness to stand up in the big moments and not shy away because they fear losing. It’s the only way the mentality will have any chance of changing at Hibs.
Winning games breeds confidence, confidence brings improved performances, performances and results combined bring potential to win trophies, get European football and that brings out potential suitors for your players. All of that combined allows you a chance to build a self-sustaining model that most Scottish clubs need to supplement the income from tickets and our poor TV and sponsorship deals. Easy, no….. but it should be the aim and it’s possible with the right people working to a clear plan that is understood from the boardroom to boot room and by the fans in the stands.
In the meantime all you Hibs fans can support the club by buying the 2025 Hibs calendar. I just hope they put players with contracts beyond June 25 in from June to Dec.
Hope you enjoyed.
RH