Southampton – Goals – What is the problem & possible solutions
This is an article that was requested by a follower of the site on our new social media account over on Bluesky – @footballtalentr.bsky.social
This will be my main social output as I move away from what was once Twitter and is now just a messy bot site.
Matt Lomas @mattlomas.bsky.social (Southampton fan)
My thanks for the follow and response. I’m really glad that Southampton have come up as they are a team I have a fond memory of from my days of playing Champ Manager / FM with a save I done when Southampton were down in League One.
Your request was that I look at some potential striker options for your team who sadly are bottom of the EPL. A clear issue is the goals for column, only 7 goals in 11 games (all from inside the box) from a striker pool that contains:
* Top Scorer – Cameron Archer (started 6 of 11) 2 goals / 0 assists
Adam Armstrong (started 5 of 11) 1 goal / 0 assists
Paul Onuachu (started 0 of 11) 0 goals / 0 assists
Ross Stewart (started 1 game and is currently injured) 0 goals / 0 assists
First off, the things to consider as I only see Southampton highlights and the odd game live on Sky.
- Are the strikers getting chances, as we can’t put much blame them if they aren’t getting the service.
- The teams attacking numbers (xG, touches in box, shots on target % and per 90)
This just gives us a little base to start with and I think it’s fair to say that the charts below are what most would expect to see for a team who are bottom of the league.
- Standout from above is that Cameron Archer is well below his xG with just under 0.6 goals expected per 90 minutes with a conversion rate on just under 0.3 per 90 mins (so in the region of 50% below expectation)
- Armstrong is a little below his xG, hits the target less than Archer but has around 0.5 more attacking actions per 90min. Armstrongs figures are slightly skewed by him often coming on and playing wider with his heat map showing most of his touches being over on the right wing.
The sample size is very small but so far, the picture being painted by the data is the picture that Saints fans would tell you they have seen every week in the EPL.
The above team graphics also complete the attacking picture for the Saints and again I think any fan with their eyes open could tell me what this data would show. A team who are actually ok at getting into the box. 17.45 per 90mins which is in line with the likes of Everton and Brentford but are bottom of the table for getting shots away and in turn the big payout that all supporters want of goals is not coming. The xG says they should be scoring more than Ipswich, Leicester, Everton and Wolves.
Matt I agree a striker should be high on the list of Saints list for Christmas. If we are honest most EPL teams even at the top end would love an extra goal scorer for Christmas. The problem, finding a good one that fits the way you play. If you can find that striker who comes in during the transfer window who can score 8 or 9 goals between then and the end of the season then you’ll have a chance.
Russel Martin has had a lot of criticism for trying to stick with the methods that got Southampton back to the EPL and while I understand those criticisms I think some pundits should know better. Southampton have bought players and built a team to play in a particular style, to then totally change that means you are likely asking players to move away from playing to their strengths. That in itself can end up being even worse than what you are doing, sometimes unfortunately it’s just about quality of players and if truth be told, Southampton are one of the poorest squads so a relegation battle was always likely.
What would I look for if I was sent out to find strikers for Southampton:
- Good speed as you have a team that will find yourselves defending often so counter opportunities are always likely
- Composure in the box and the ability to hit the target
- As it’s EPL not only do you need speed but you need to have some good upper body strength to cope with the physicality
- Last but not least due to the lacks of assists coming from the strikers if I could I’d want to try and find someone who could help bring Dibbling, Diaz and the other attacking players coming from wider or deeper areas into the party
We also have to consider budget and the realistic chances of relegation as a factor. As a big part would be selling the club on what they are today but also what they have in the future, going down could be part of that but the sales pitch would be based on a plan that shows Southampton as an EPL team in the eyars to come.
With all that in mind these 3 would be on my watch list:
Kevin Carlos
FC Basle
Spanish
23 Years Old
I really enjoyed watching Carlos last season when he was at Yverdon Sport in Switzerland and I honestly thought a bigger European team would have made a move on him as the quoted price of around 3 million pounds in this day and age seemed a bargain.
Carlos has some of the key attributes I’ve noted above: Pace, strength and over the last 18 months he’s been confident in front of goal with 14 goals for YS last season and 6 so far this season for Basle.
Often deployed as a lone striker he has shown ability to take in the ball and move his team up the pitch, especially with YS. Since he’s moved to Basle, he’s shown that in a better team he can focus on being the spearhead of attack and is able to focus more on getting himself into the 18-yard box. So, you have a good demonstration of what he can offer to a team who are struggling (EPL) and a team who would be more dominant (Championship)
His first goal in a recent 2-1 win vs St. Gallen is a good example of him wanting to take the ball in a tight area and almost bully his way to get his shot on goal and it pays off. I even enjoyed seeing the fury in his face when he hits the post when the game is still 1-1, little things like a sign of the desire to score are good signs in my opinion. It’s a personal preference but I like strikers to have that little frustrated edge and it’s something you see throughout this game. He is happy to go head-to-head vs the central defenders and late in the game he gets the winner. A tap in as the ball comes off the bar, but again it’s his desire to be in those positions that really impresses me.
Highlights: FC Basel vs FC St. Gallen FC 2:1 (20.10.2024) Highlights
So, lots of positives on Carlos. There are a few negatives. He isn’t the most comfortable shooting with his left foot and he can be prone to missing the odd good chance, but for me the overall picture has a lot of positives and at 23 I’d expect under good guidance he will improve.
Kevin Denkey
Cercle Brugge
Togolese
23 years old
As a football fan signing Denkey would terrify me because I fear that if he started badly Denkey would fast be known as Donkey (even my auto-correct and spell checker wanted to change his name to donkey, but let’s but the obvious aside for one second and imagine what he does if he is successful.
Now this appears to be a snooze, you lose situation with various teams looking at him. Lille (Ligue 1) and Cincinnati (MLS) all being heavily linked with a move in the region of 12 million pounds.
Why?
Finishing instincts. Denkey isn’t complex, lacks some things that I mentioned above like the ability to link, his passing isn’t the best… but he has pace, strength and goals in him. If Russell Martin was confident he could get those around to create for a player like Denkey, get the ball to him in the box quickly, then I’d trust Denkey to hit the target more often than not and score more of those high value chances that are currently being left on the board.
One thing that really stood out for me when watching Denkey was like any striker he misses his fair share but he never seems to let it get to him and a bit like Carlos above you see that sense of frustration that makes him want to finish the next one that comes his way.
He’s also not shy in coming off the bench in games and making himself know. A recent 2-1 vs Gent seen him come on in the 67th minute when the game was at 0-0. Plays 23 minutes like a man on a mission, 2 goals and 3 points for Cercle. Another demonstration of what he’s all about with the 2 goals. Get in the box, and get shots off.
Highlights: 🎬 Cercle Brugge – KAA Gent: 2-1 (MD5 JPL)
The downsides as above are he can be guilty of missing chances, and his link play could use some work but sometimes when you are struggling for goals you just need someone who will bash on with trying to get as high the goalscoring charts as they can. It also sometimes brings belief to the more creative players to get the ball in early, knowing they have a striker who will attack pretty much anything. Right now, it could be said Southampton in part overplay in and around the box because they don’t have someone like that to focus delivery on.
The 2 above would probably be the ones who fit best in my opinion as I think the pace, power and most of all confidence you’d be getting with both would be vital.
This last player is a striker that I think will improve a lot over the next year or two, potentially into a good EPL player, again if he keeps working with good people and improving on some elements that are below the standard expected then he could go far. That player is….
Mika Biereth
SK Sturm Graz
Danish
21 years old
Biereth first came to my attention playing in the Scottish Premiership for Motherwell (loan from Arsenal) and what jumped out was how quickly teams were to start looking at him because in his first few games he was a menace. Teams were quick to notice and you could see teams giving him a little extra attention pretty quickly. 11 starts, 6 goals and 5 assists were numbers that were always likely to grab attention and Graz jumped early, trying to beat others to the punch because had those numbers continued, he’d have been out of their reach by the end of the season.
A bit like Denkey, in that his flaws are in the link up play but his strengths are his ability and desire to want to be a goal-scorer. 8 goals and 1 assist in 13 games (12 starts) this season, including a well taken hat-trick vs Red Bull Salzburg have seen him continue his fine scoring form.
Highlights vs RB Salzburg: HIGHLIGHTS | SK Sturm Graz vs. FC Salzburg | 9. Runde
His form this season has seen him out perform his xG with 0.64 goals a touch above his xG of 0.46 in the Austrian Bundesliga but where he is under par is his passing accuracy which sits around the 60% mark for the season. That in part can be put down to him not having a huge number of options around him and most of his passes being in the final third, but he has been the spearhead of a Graz team who top the league in Austria.
While some would point to the differences between the leagues he has played and had success in to the EPL, I would say that he’s following a path that’s allowing him to play and develop. Criticism of the Scottish game is often valid but if you ask any player who has played in Scotland if they struggle with the pace of the EPL, the answer would be no as while the games lack the quality the pace is quick and you need to be able to cope with the physical elements of the game. In Austria it’s a bit more technical and so he’s learning in the right environments to build upon his Fulham and Arsenal Academy days in the right way.
Far from the finished article and a little behind the other 2 in order of preference for me, but certainly given the situation he is a player that is likely within budget and who would have plenty of room to grow in the future, whether that be in the EPL or the Championship.
The alternative is the Southampton look to the loan market, or someone who is a bit older but given your recent history I would expect that if money is spent it will be with an eye on future value and all 3 above fit into that recruitment model.
Older options who may bring something would be the likes of Alassane Plea (Borussia M’gladbach), Andrej Kramarić (Hoffenheim) or they could go closer to him with a move for a Danny Ings or Michail Antonio (West Ham) but these types of deals would still involve financial outlays in terms of fees and don’t really fit what Southampton have been doing in recent years. Personally, I’d stick to the plan, albeit I know that could result in relegation but I think the paths bumps will see you as Saints fans have a club who sooner or later will be in a position to be an established EPL team again.
My thanks Mark for this question and I hope you have taken something from it. Hopefully your beloved Saints find solutions that keep them in the EPL. I’ll be keeping an eye on one or two of your players over the next year or so, especially when their loans end. I really like what I seen of Matsuki in the J-League and the various under age international tournaments over the past few years and Juan looks an interesting player. So as above while it’s tough for you just now I think your club are at least looking to build something that is sustainable long term.
Best of luck to all you Saints fans RH