PART 2 – FOREVER THE BENCHMARK……
The second part of this series of blog posts is going to focus on:
- Tactics and areas where we have excelled and areas where we could improve
- Players from blog post 1 who we might look to move on and what that looks like for the first team
- Which players can we look to build the team around over the next 3 or 4 years, including those who may step up from the B team and Academy
Intro
Now I’m not going to reflect back to much on what Ange Postecoglou or anyone elses setup was because they are not here. This is Brendan Rodgers team and the onus is on him to put his plan into action and get the team to be functional, fast, fluid, entertaining and winning. Some clubs only demand one or 2 of those things but we are not some club where you can afford to just compete, or even to just win.
Our history and our ethos is built upon being a team who entertains as it wins just like the legends above did. Even now when we play the very best in the Champions League at home and you know we will be up against it, there is still an expectation on the players to try and play our way, almost as a way to show a little respect to those men who achieved moments that will last longer than any other this club has or will ever achieve.
So when I discuss Celtic with people who want to belittle our league, usual guff about farmers league and only 2 teams who can win and you live in your history etc….
The one thing I tell them that very few clubs in very few leagues have to deal with is the absolute pressure that comes with wearing our green and white hoops and going into every game knowing you have to play really well and win over 80% of the games we play each season to be seen as having met the minimum expectations. When you think about it is absolutely crazy but it will never change, so bare that in mind when you think about how strong mentally you have to be to wear that shirt and step out infront of 59,000 people every other week. We as a support can help make great players, but our expectations can also break players.
Tactics:
The main example I’m going to use throughout this is the first 45mins of the 2-1 win vs Rangers on 11th of May because it’s fresh in everyones mind and it’s one of the best stress tests you can do because they are our main challenger.
Some will call it Brendan-Ball or Brendan-Baw for me it’s 4123 in attack when we have controlled possession / 4231 when the opponent has controlled possession deep in their own half and our transitions on the counter are varied but often we split from that 4231 shape to a 4213 or a 4141 depending on where we regain the ball.
In this game against Rangers and in the previous game we’ve had success in 3 key areas.
- Maeda vs Tavernier – When we get the ball out fast and get Maeda either running at Tavernier or able to put pressure on and get him looking at his own goal then we cause problems. In part I’d go as far as to say it’s now a mental block for Tavernier because Maeda has never failed to force a mistake out of him and he also helps reduce the threat of Tavernier in open play when we don’t have the ball.
- Central Midfielders drifting into wide areas (mainly the right side) – McGregor and O’Riley were excellent in this game, using Hatates position at the head of the 3 central players to attract Diomande or Lundstrum, knowing Silva didn’t want to come with Johnston who would often step into be like a right central midfielder beside them, in turn allowing one or both of them to drift over into the wide areas behind Forrest. The first goal is exceptional example of them using that to create a triangle of 3 to play clean through what was a set of 4 defenders who were in a square shape for Rangers. They had more numbers, doing nothing and we had 1 less exploiting the fact they thought numbers was enough.
- Paulo Bernardo done it in the game at Ibrox to setup Idah as well, drifts left into a space that means we had Taylor at left back, Bernardo at left midfield and Maeada as a left winger. Rangers pressed Taylor and Tavernier was trying to stay on Maeda, but no one was paying any attention to Bernardo who took the acres of space he intelligently found by drifting off Lunstrum and Dowell and executed brilliantly to play in Idah.
- Unlike the game at Ibrox where we for me were guilty of ignoring the chance to play a longer ball, we took a leaf out of the blue book and were willing to make a few more long distance passes to show that we weren’t just looking to play from the back into midfield and allow them to push up and extra 5 or 10 yards. The 2nd goal again was a great example of it. Rangers are so focused on McGregor that Tom Lawrence lets Carter-Vickers stroll out, get the binoculars out to have a good look at his options and he recognises our silver haired speedster is free… Our ideal match-up in 1vs1s in the final third if he can get the pass right. It’s like seeing Max Verstappen in his Red Bull car vs me in my family car. The pass is good, the touch from Daizen is really good, and if you watch it back look at how far off Tavernier drops. He’s on the line when Daizen turns in to face him up, but instead of engaging because he’s terrified of committing and being beat, he just lets Daizen walk him into the box. It’s in his head that as long as he doesn’t make a glaring error it’s not a big deal, the problem for Tavernier is he has is he has no sense of danger and his entire midfield is having to sprint towards their own goal to try and stop runners, with Taylor and Hatate both on the edge ahead of Diomande and the goal scorer Lundstrum who directs Daizens low ball beautifully past Butland.
All of the above were key parts of how we attacked the game and it was well thought out with Dujon Sterling being a more natural defensive thinker on the left side of the pitch.
The Heat Maps below show you our rights side and how much joy we were getting from Matt, Cal, James and AJ.
Matt:
Cal:
Forrest:
AJ:
Then you compare it to the left side:
Greg:
Daizen:
Reo:
It’s some difference but that entire unit combined to allow the plan to be executed. People will say Reo was quiet, well he was when compared to McGregor and O’Riley but his positioning throughout that first 45mins was vital to allowing the other 2 to push over and focus on what is a clear defensive weakness on the left side of the Rangers team with Silva and Barisic.
Areas I would be mildly critical of would be how we defend when we look at free kicks from deeper areas and when Barisic and Silva got into crossing areas on our left side and the goal obviously.
The goal was cheap from our point of view. Silva and Barisic establish a 2 vs 1 on AJ. O’Riley is a fair bit behind AJ and in our own box, Forrest is up the pitch and as the ball eventually comes over and we have a problem. Rangers have a 3 vs 2 at the back post and it ends up with Taylor jumping against 2, the main one being Sterling who to be fair shows good awareness because it’s a difficult header to get on goal, so he directs it back across to Dessers who Scales has lost because he’s watched the ball come down over his head. Hart has anticipated a header on goal so he’s set to dive and is left rooted as it comes back for an easy finish from Dessers.
There was also a free kick early in the game around the 12min mark which was telegraphed to the back post and my issue isn’t that the players lose an aerial challenge as that can happen. It’s that when it’s nodded back across goal the entire back line has dropped to the 6 yard line, 3 Rangers players have held back waiting for the knockdown, if they execute that well enough it’s a really good chance in the heart of our penalty box. In that situation where we outnumbered them 6 to 4 when Souttar goes up against O’Riley and 5 of our players drop, with 3 Rangers players holding back so we have 5 players with 1 option and that is to desperately try and block a shot on goal, none of them are close enough to ensure that shot doesn’t happen and if we do start lunging in the risk element goes up massively. Thankfully in this moment the header back wasn’t accurate and we cleared.
There was also the Silva header at the back post which again was just the result of us allowing them to cross from areas where they can be dangerous and AJ not doing enough, but Silva seemed more interested in hitting the floor than he did in heading the ball so we got away with one.
The key thing with Rangers is the threats are easy to read as they do 2 things well. Crosses from anywhere within 30 yards, so we need to ensure we don’t allow the likes of Tavernier and Barisic space in the final third. Despite being pretty poor defenders, both can deliver a ball with good pace and accuracy into the box. The next thing is second balls. They are happy to go from back to front, into channels or to play for the flick on or the second ball with a view to gaining territory. It’s not complex but if you give them the freedom to do it, it can be very effective especially if they can win free kicks in and around the box from it.
Tactics Over The Season:
I think it’s difficult to judge this season because it’s been a real transition from the season before. I’m not sure I’m on board with the notion that we picked up this season with a setup that was a mirror image of what we had last season. First off with different players in some key areas things naturally change. You get different dynamics when you put different players together. Palma and Jota were 2 very different players and the pace of Starfelt was gone so CCV went from being the guy who was going up and being aggressive for aerial duels knowing, Starfelt was acting as the speedy sweeper in behind to being the guy who has to spend a bit more time being the cover option. The intensity of our press is also different because the pace of individuals is a big factor, take Daizen out and put Palma in and you get a different dynamic.
Defensively at one point it was near impossible to name the same back 4 for a run of 3 games because of injuries and so fluidity is tough to manufacture in that scenario. So while Taylor and AJ still come inside the width ahead of them hasn’t been the same. The dynamics of Carter-Vickers and Scales is very different and we had some many different back 4s that at one point away at Aberdeen our back 4 was: Bernabei, Scales, Nawrocki and Johnston. I doubt we’d ever see that back 4 if everyone was fit.
In midfield O’Riley has found a new dimension to his game where he is getting in the box more and his goal tally reflects that and I like the recent dynamic with McGregor and Hatate play as a 3 and move round like a nice little triangle, which has stopped teams pinning a man on McGregor for the whole game. Earlier in the season for me if O’Riley didn’t play well or produce a moment then we were in trouble. The trio of O’Riley, McGregor and Turnbull or Bernardo that we seen early doors lacked something, McGregor often finding himself pinned with a man marker and only being able to play lateral or back to the defence. In the case of the Bull it was a pace issue for me. Bernardo I like, but in that trio it lacked something that I couldn’t put my finger on. 3 good players but maybe to similar to one another, or again maybe just lacked the understanding that comes with games.
The main difference for me is in the final third, especially with Kyogo. Kyogo is a master of the bigger picture where playing offside is concerned. His intelligence in that part of the game I haven’t seen since Ruud Van Nistelrooy (I’m not saying he’s as good as RvN) but in that element of understanding how to manipulate an offside trap he’s so clever.
Some would look at the volume of time where he stands 2 yards offside and think he’s being lazy, but all he’s doing is lulling defenders into a false sense of security because in that moment he’s not the threat, the threat should be the wingers. They need to see the chance to stay wide and make diagonal runs inside the fullback to open up passing lanes. If that is done right all they need to do is make simple pass or low cross and Kyogo who was offside in the first phase, or the opposite winger (something Abada was great at as well) is now well onside because he’s inline with the ball and he’s got a 2 yard head-start on the defenders, and if the ball is good he can go for the first touch finish. This season hasn’t happened anywhere near enough and instead we’ve seen the inconsistency of having played so many different wingers on both sides and bar Daizen none of them naturally make those darting runs inside to break lines.
Kyogo has had a dip in form but I still think he makes a lot of early runs that go unnoticed and given teams domestically love to play with 10 or 11 behind the ball in low blocks it would be great if we were seeing more of those early runs and making the attempt to find him, at worst it turns teams when they are a bit higher up the pitch and then you can aggressively press with a view to taking back the ball in dangerous areas.
When you look back at Rodgers history you see a preference for a different type of striker, generally players who get a bit more involved that Kyogo does. Danny Graham (Swansea), Suarez (Liverpool), Dembele & Edouard (first time round with us) and then Iheanacho (Leicester). All of them are players who would get far more involved in link up play and then do one of two things, drift into wider spaces or act is strong number 9. Kyogo is a striker who wants to play on the last line and beyond, and I do wonder what that means for him next season.
This is a really good article from 2022 that demonstrates what Kyogo does best:
Kyogo Furuhashi: Celtic’s electric Japanese striker ready to shine in Europe – Total Football Analysis Magazine
The wingers have probably been my biggest source of frustration this season. We have loads of them but as I mentioned in the first part our best 11 right now would have Daizen left and Forrest on the right side which is a slight concern given the money invested in signing Tilio, Yang, Kuhn and Palma and no one looks close to being an improvement on what we had.
With all of the above in mind I thought back to the presentation Rodgers gave some members of the press to show that in many ways the team isn’t as different as some were making out and I toddled off to have look into all our key metrics and to be fair he is right, nothing much has changed in terms of data from last season to this season for chances created, shots, passes etc…. all within a few percent above or below but nothing ground breaking other than one area and that is goals scored…..
We finished with 114 in the league last season and this season to date with 1 game left we have 85. Defensively we are a bit better with 34 conceded last season compared to 26 so far this season.
Ultimately, I think tactically this season it’s been less about patterns, shapes and more about pure quality of players and the dynamic, especially around the level of understanding between the players. It just hasn’t been as good and that in part has been due to the inconsistency of selection caused by injuries.
Next Season
Rodgers has generally played a variation of 433 or 4231 more often than not, albeit at Leicester recently he did try a few different things towards the end of his tenure but I don’t recall them getting much joy from it. I seem to recall a 3511 type setup vs Man City with Maddison in behind the striker.
While I would love to see us embrace something like Leverkusen and Man City have with a back 3 that has a full back in it to allow them to push up or Citys back 4 where the fullbacks can be central defenders who are big, strong and quick but there are 2 major issues. First off our current squad doesn’t have really quick and aggressive fullbacks who could move into wingback/wide midfielder roles and we don’t have any central defenders who you could move to fullback and model themselves on a Gvardiol or Ake.
I fully expect more of the same with a 433/4231 base because the turnaround in the squad to move away from it would be massive due to the volume of wingers and central midfielders we have.
The fact is no matter what setup we use domestically we have players who have the ability to ensure we are better than the rest, with a few tests in the league but nothing that we should fear. So the acid test is Europe and while we are extremely unlikely to ever match the Lisbon Lions the benchmark they set was more than just to win, it was to represent the club with everything they had and to make people see the name Celtic and know they were going to be in a contest. Sadly in recent years that has been diluted to the point where I think most teams in Europe now see us as a nice team to be drawn against and that needs to change. A big part of it is players, but we also need to be better tactically and start showing we’ve learned lessons from the last 2 seasons in the Champions League. The last 2 years we had a lot of players who had minimal experience, but now most are going into their 3rd season of Champions League so they need to show that in their performances. Rodgers also needs to consider if we have to be a touch more pragmatic or structured away from home. He could look to use a chunk of his budget to find a central defender who is comfortable in another role, whether that be fullback or as a holding midfielder so we could setup a more flexible defensive structure. Our 4231 could quickly turn into a 541 defensively with one of the holding players dropping into the back 4, or a 3421 if we could find a player with the Ake style avatar or a full back who was comfortable moving up into midfield.
Players Moving On
Imo we have 4 players in the first team that are at risk of being pursued by bigger teams or teams in better leagues:
Matt O’Riley: We all know that he had legitimate interest in January, and the rumour mill has been swirling since that window closed with many believing that a move abroad does appeal to him and that chances are that will happen this summer. In this situation personally I would happily see us look to get Matt on another new deal that takes him in line with the highest earners at the club, but with a minimum fee release clause that can be activated as of the summer of 2025 and beyond.
Reo Hatate: Rodgers has singled him out on a few occasions this season for performances. At the start when he dropped Reo for Turnbull and after the game against Rangers where he was publicly commenting on Reos sloppy passing in the second half. That might be a sign that if an offer came that Rodgers wouldn’t block Reo from going. The one thing we absolutely cannot allow is for O’Riley and Hatate to go in the same summer.
Kyogo Furahashi: The move for Idah and dropping of Kyogo along with the clear differences in how we create chances will potentially bring in a few rogues looking to see if this is a situation they can capatlise on.
Cameron Carter-Vickers: Injuries aside this season that’s 3 solid seasons under his belt and again when teams down south start looking for players who might help with the home-grown rules and they want a player who has been tested at a high level then his name will appear.
Then we have a few others like Daizen, AJ and maybe even Greg Taylor who could have interest depending on the circumstances. In the younger group we have Daniel Kelly and Rocco Vata who as it stands still haven’t signed new deals. I’d expect Vata to leave when his deal expires in the summer. I’m hoping Daniel Kelly stays.
Joe Hart is retiring and that is something that I hope we have some clear ideas on as waiting until the last few days to sign a new number 1 would be gross negligence in my mind. If anything the replacement for Joe should be the first man through the door this summer.
So best case scenario is we only lose Joe, but I expect Matt to get offers that he will want to look at and chances are the club won’t stand in his way. As to how much that will be, for me the club should be looking for at least 25 million pounds for Matt as a starting figure and it should have some very favourable add-ons attached. He’s a proven winner, he’s got European experience and is now a full international. I’ve said it in my previous post about the likes of Shankland, Miovksi and Bair… teams have to stand strong with values and point to players who have been successful here and then moved abroad and demand more than they have before.
The one from the above that for me we cannot lose is Carter-Vickers. I love all of them and would happily see them all wearing Hoops next season but depending on how he views things I’d burst the bank to keep him in place for the next few years because he is a leader and until such time as we can find someone of similar quality. He is absolutely essential to our defence. We also need to keep one of the two midfielders as to lose Hatate and O’Riley would leave us in an extremely light in terms of real creativity from midfield.
The rest
As I’ve said a lot throughout both parts I believe our squad is massively bloated which creates 3 problems:
- First Team Budget is being eaten up by players we don’t use
- Pathways for the youths are littered with players we’ve spent money on and don’t use
- Lots of players sat in the stands or at home can lead to a problematic changing room
Now it’s unrealistic to move on everyone that we don’t use or don’t view as good enough or ready for the first team but in order of preference I would look to do the following:
Sell (or loan with an option / obligation to buy):
Lagerbielke – The situation in January has made this a bit of a no brainer
Bernabei (upon return from his current loan) – Just really poor recruitment
Tilio – His pathway to the first team is nearly as far away as he is right now
Siegrist – He’s not going to be first choice and is basically a blocker for a younger goalie
Kobayashi – Physicality is a clear issue
Liam Shaw – He’s spent more time at other clubs that he has with us since he signed
Haksabanovic – Hasn’t really shown much at Stoke and it seemed clear Rodgers didn’t rate him
Mikey Johnston – Doing well at WBA and now is probably the ideal time for both parties
Odin Thiago Holm – First one in last summer but has done nothing to suggest Rodgers rates him
Nawrocki – Imo doesn’t fit the way we play and with Scales now ahead of him the signs aren’t good
McCarthy – I don’t see him leaving but he looks so far out of the picture that I often forget he’s still here
Loans for 5 to 10 months:
Yang – Needs to go and learn by getting 20+ starts under his belt and then see where he is
Kwon – Same as Yang. Showed some good bits at St.Mirren and another season back there would be ideal
Oh – Similar to the guys above. His scoring record is actually ok, but he is still raw in some key areas
Montgomery – Needs games to continue his development especially if the move from left wing to left back is the overall plan
Open to offers:
Welsh – Been in the setup for ages but has never come close to cementing a spot
At the end of all of this if you looked at the situation from a data perspective, we have already sold Turnbull and Abada midway through this season who were both double figures contributors to the attack (assists & goals combined) when they played. If we were to sell O’Riley that’s 30 league goal contributions on top of the players already gone. So how we replace that whether it be existing players stepping up, or the purchase of players it is vital that we have players we can look at and be confident they can produce like these guys have.
How would the squad look if all of the above who are marked under sell and the current loan players depart:
Now as above I don’t see us moving on all those players as I hope a few will maybe use the summer to reset and come back with a new found focus and willingness to make themselves a valuable asset to the team, but what it does show is that we need a goalkeeper, left back and a striker just to create a balance throughout the squad. If we sell O’Riley or Hatate then that would leave us light in terms of a midfield creator so it’s a big summer for Rodgers and the recruitment team.
Who do we build the squad around over the next 3 years:
Callum McGregor:
Only 30, we still have the joys of a few more years to come from our captain. What will be interesting is to see how his game changes over the next few years. I do very much enjoy him in this trio with O’Riley and Hatate as I think they have such a complimentary set of skills that domestically they are miles ahead of the rest. However we know that trio might come to an end this summer or next summer at the latest so I’m enjoying it while it’s on show.
The main question has to be how we change in the Champions League because as well as Cal and in some games O’Riley did playing in the 6, there is a feel that we need someone who is a bit more defensively aggressive having lost a lot of goals where teams have come through the center of us with ease.
Cameron Carter-Vickers:
At 26 he’s coming into those peak years and again I’d love to see the club keep topping a contract to ensure we keep players like CCV here. He may have ambitions to go back and play in the EPL but while he’s here, happy and performing then lets do everything we can to keep the CCV train rolling because his presence in the team has such a huge and positive effect on the dynamic, so much so that I’d say it’s on the same level as Cal.
Daniel Kelly:
At 18 Daniel Kelly is the first player to come through our system in ages where even in the small glimpses I have looked and thought this boy could easily sit in that midfield and get double digit starts for us next season and not look out of place. I could be totally wrong, at 18 so much of it is just potential but my understanding is this is a lad who views Celtic Park as home, his family view as home and while some people can fall to that pressure everything I’ve heard about this young man tells me that given the opportunity he’d thrive in it.
His contract situation sounds complex, and with so many English and German teams looking at our young players and offering what are basically life changing contracts at a very early age it’s easy to understand why players leave. In this situation I’m hoping that Brendan Rodgers presents a case for the club that lets Daniel know he is going to be given proper opportunities and that we aren’t going to offer ridiculously low contracts to these young lads just because they are academy players. We have wasted millions on players who you could argue are now behind Kelly in the pecking order at the club. I really hope that both parties come to a positive conclusion that will see Kelly getting his photo taken with a hooped shirt with the numbers 2029 on it soon.
I would also love to see at least 2 or 3 of the youth players be active parts of the team within the next 2 years. In many cases they need to work on their physicality, and get out and do some real work on their upper body strength. While it is important that the club helps with this as much as possible there is nothing stopping young players from going out and getting 1 to 1 coaching or a Personal Trainer to help them develop as well. They should be actively encouraged to do whatever they can so when they time comes they know they are as fit and ready for first team football as they can be.
That’s all for Part 2.
Part 3 will be looking at some potential signings in the defensive unit and should be up by the 26th of May
Thanks for reading
RH